Storm Chaser Journal

If I only had a dollar for all the emails I’ve received asking about the 2010 storm season.

A lot of this stems from the unusually active winter season. Will a record breaking winter storm season translate into a a violent spring?

The best answer is maybe, but not guaranteed.

The elements that lead to an active spring are like the parts of a machine. Each element must work together in order to product a specific effect. For example: Large cold fronts can dive down through the Alley, stabilizing the atmosphere with cooler surface temperatures and pushing moisture into the Gulf. This was a problem last year, when several potentially dangerous days fizzled out. Good for residents of Tornado Alley, bad for chasers.

Overly active dynamics do not always indicate the end of the world. An active winter can quickly transform into a sudden spring, resulting in an average or below average severe weather season. However, it’s been my experience that an active winter (and El Niño) can sometimes lead to a violent spring. This was last seen in 1995 /1996. The year 1995 was a dud for chasers (like 2009), but in June 1996, all hell broke loose. My guess is 2010 will be more active than 2009. The big question is where and when.

Global patterns can change quickly and persistent jet stream configurations ultimately determine the potential, frequency and regional location of extreme weather. Storms love fast moving, veering winds from the surface upwards. Last year, the northern jet stream took a vacation and left chasers bored to death in the Alley. This year could, and likely will, be different. If the jet stream transitions into a favorable configuration over the Alley and everything else clicks, look out, it could get busy.

It’s important to note that the deep south (Alabama, southern and eastern Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Georgia) will be the first regions to experience severe weather in the next few weeks.

The Storm Gods are knocking on the door!

Stay safe.

Warren